黄河干流水文缺水分类模型研究The Study on the Hydrology Water Shortage Classification Model of Yellow River
吴新
摘要(Abstract)：
本文通过对黄河干流节点径流频率分析和超越机率分析,推求了节点水文缺水量。通过制定黄河干流水文缺水等级划分标准,用节点天然径流系列为样本,建立了节点水文缺水分类模型。应用分类模型,进一步得到了节点缺水状态转移概率矩阵。节点水文缺水分类模型和状态转移概率矩阵将会对黄河干流水资源合理配置提供决策依据。
关键词(KeyWords)： 水文缺水;分类模型;转移概率矩阵;黄河
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 吴新
参考文献(References)：
- [1]刘光文.水文分析与计算[M].北京:中国水利电力出版社,1989.11.
- [2]吴新.跨流域调水理论和随机配水模型研究[D].西安:西安理工大学博士论文,2006.3.
- [3]Cai X,M W Rosegrant.Optionalwater developm ent strategies for the Yellow R iver Basin:Balancing agricu ltural and ecologicalwater demands[J].W ater Resources Research,W 08S04,doi:10.1029/2003WR002488,2004,40(7):121-132.
- [4]HuangW enCheng,Chou Ch iaCh ing.D rought early warn ing system in reservoir operation:theory and practice[J].W ater Resources Research,W 11406,2005,41(11):77-89.
- [5]HuangW enCheng,Yuan LunCh in.A drought early warn ing system on real-tim e mu ltireservoir operations[J].W ater Resources Research,W 06401,2004,40(6):105-118.
- [6]Gordon,A.C lassification:M ethods for the Exploratory Analysis ofMu ltivariate Data[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1981.
- [7]Isaacson D L,Madsen R W.Markov Chains Theory and Applications[M].New York:Joha W iley&Sons,1976.